AP Television

Farnborough, UK - 11 July 2016

1. Wide of black rain clouds over Farnborough International Airshow

2. Mid of fighter jet taxiing as rain starts to fall

3. Mid of pilot in cockpit as heavy rain falls

4. Wide of airshow under heavy rain with camera lens covered in raindrops

5. Tilt up to high shot of Farnborough International Airshow earlier in the day

6. Wide of Qatar Airways passenger aircraft nose

7. Flags flying in the wind

8. Various of Qatar Airways passenger aircraft

9. SOUNDBITE (English) Richard Aboulafia, Vice-President of Teal Group:

"I think there's a couple of issues at play. One is that backlogs are enormous, so if anything this should be a story about execution rather than bringing in additional orders. The second, of course, is just the macro-economic bleak outlook, we're waiting for that to impact the aviation business. It hasn't happened yet, but people are concerned."

10. Various of Airbus A380 passenger aircraft

11. Wide of airshow visitors

12. SOUNDBITE (English) Howard Wheeldon, Independent Aerospace Industry Expert:

"There'll certainly be fewer orders this year than there were two years ago at this show which in itself was lower than the show two years before. I think that you have to remember that the commercial aircraft industry has gone through a very big hiatus over the last 10 years. Orders doubled, it didn't just grow, they doubled, in some cases trebled. So we have to work our way through that. The commercial aircraft manufacturers have got 10 years' worth of orders in hand, the manufacturers themselves have got a big issue in insuring that they can get those aircraft out of the door, with their component suppliers working alongside. So, it's probably no bad thing that we're going through a bit of a dip. It is still a cyclical industry, oil is still a determining factor, so there are many, many issues."

13. Various of Qatar Airways executive jet

14. Various of Boeing 737 MAX

15. SOUNDBITE (English) Richard Aboulafia, Vice-President of Teal Group:

"You know, fuel prices of course have come down quite a bit, but people are still scarred from all those years of very high fuel, so they're trying to do their best to cope with that by adopting the latest and most efficient jet engines and of course squeezing as many people as they can into a given tube. These are the ways you cope with high jet prices, high fuel prices."

16. Tilt up to wide high shot of military and defence area of Farnborough International Airshow

17. Wide of Raytheon T-100 jet

18. Wide of two fighter jets

19. Wide of Royal Navy helicopter

20. SOUNDBITE (English) Richard Aboulafia, Vice-President of Teal Group:

"I think defence is going to play a very big role in this show and that of course is the flip side of the global uncertainty we're seeing out there. It really is having a positive effect on defence spending, sad commentary on the times I suppose. You'll probably see some announcements, the problem is that defence, typically that doesn't show up in the form of actual sales activity at airshows, it's more just talks, agreements, things like that. It's not the same as airlines showing up and placing an order for 100 jets that actually means something."

21. Pan left of military and defence area

22. Close of jet engines

23. Wide of military personnel standing on top of helicopter

24. Wide of military helicopter

25. SOUNDBITE (English) Richard Aboulafia, Vice-President of Teal Group:

"Long-term, I don't think it will be an issue. There'll be a way to negotiate the worst fears away from this. What is an issue is the uncertainty and there's so much uncertainty in the world, we don't need more, because of course with uncertainty you get companies baulking at investment decisions - like buying jets."

26. Wide of Bombardier C Series passenger aircraft

27. Wide of Iberia Regional passenger aircraft

28. SOUNDBITE (English) Howard Wheeldon, Independent Aerospace Industry Expert:

"Brexit may be the first thing on people's minds here in the UK at the moment, but it's the last thing on the minds of those here who are thinking about placing orders. They will place orders whether Brexit occurs or not, of course it's going to occur, it's not going to change anything, investment is long-term. Yes, there may be changes ten years from now, but it's not going to affect anything that's already here. So, I think it's the last thing on anybody's lips in terms of fearing that anything's going to happen. Though I accept there is a degree of uncertainty caused by it."

29. Wide of visitors walking through airshow, Airbus 737 MAX in background

LENGTH: 5:19

LEAD IN:

Torrential rain has halted the first day of the Farnborough International Airshow, after organisers asked visitors to leave the site early due to safety concerns.

But the British summer weather is not the only thing casting gloom over the event.

The airshow is opening amid the economic uncertainty surrounding Britain's recent vote to leave the EU, with some analysts predicting fewer orders compared with the previous show in 2014.

STORY-LINE:

Black clouds loom over the Farnborough International Airshow and soon a torrential downpour drenches the site.

Organisers were forced to cancel the day's flying display and close the show early, saying they were concerned about safety.

Earlier in the day, the grey clouds were already building.

And aviation experts are predicting a similarly dreary outlook for commercial orders at the week-long aviation industry extravaganza.

Economic uncertainty and production backlogs mean many anticipate this year's event will not be able to compete with 2014's record-breaking level of orders and commitments.

According to Farnborough Airshow, 2014's event reached 204 billion US dollars in orders and commitments.

"I think there's a couple of issues at play," explains Richard Aboulafia, vice-president of the aviation industry analysts, Teal Group.

"One is that backlogs are enormous so if anything this should be a story about execution rather than bringing in additional orders. The second, of course, is just the macro-economic bleak outlook, we're waiting for that to impact the aviation business. It hasn't happened yet, but people are concerned."

Independent aerospace industry expert Howard Wheeldon is more upbeat, saying the expected drop in orders is part of the aviation industry's cycle.

"There'll certainly be fewer orders this year than there were two years ago at this show which in itself was lower than the show two years before. I think that you have to remember that the commercial aircraft industry has gone through a very big hiatus over the last 10 years. Orders doubled, it didn't just grow, they doubled, in some cases trebled. So we have to work our way through that," he says.

"The commercial aircraft manufacturers have got 10 years' worth of orders in hand, the manufacturers themselves have got a big issue in insuring that they can get those aircraft out of the door, with their component suppliers working alongside. So, it's probably no bad thing that we're going through a bit of a dip. It is still a cyclical industry, oil is still a determining factor, so there are many, many issues."

Rather than sales, analysts predict there'll be an increased focus on efficiency, as airlines attempt to squeeze everything they can from current aircraft in their fleets.

Boeing claim this new 737 MAX will deliver eight percent lower operating costs than its main competitor.

Early on Monday, China's Donghai Airlines and Boeing announced the airline intends to purchase 25 737 MAX 8s and five 787-9 Dreamliners in a deal valued at more than four billion US dollars.

"You know, fuel prices of course have come down quite a bit," says Aboulafia.

"But people are still scarred from all those years of very high fuel so they're trying to do their best to cope with that by adopting the latest and most efficient jet engines and of course squeezing as many people as they can into a given tube. These are the ways you cope with high jet prices, high fuel prices."

One area where industry experts believe there may be significant activity is in military and defence, including fighter jets and drones.

At a recent summit in Warsaw, NATO allies agreed to provide increased military support to countries in the Middle East and North Africa that are targets of Islamic extremism.

In the first big deal of the airshow, Britain signed a contract for nine new P-8A Poseidon military aircraft.

"I think defence is going to play a very big role in this show and that of course is the flipped of the global uncertainty we're seeing out there," says Aboulafia.

"It really is having a positive effect on defence spending, sad commentary on the times I suppose. You'll probably see some announcements, the problem is that defence, typically that doesn't show up in the form of actual sales activity at airshows, it's more just talks, agreements, things like that. It's not the same as airlines showing up and placing an order for 100 jets that actually means something."

The week-long event comes just weeks after Britain's vote to leave the European Union.

The pound hit a new 31-year record low and stock markets declined across Europe following the result.

Analysts believe it may not affect airlines' long-term plans and orders, but admit it may cause temporary uncertainty at an already difficult time.

"Long-term, I don't think it will be an issue," says Aboulafia.

"There'll be a way to negotiate the worst fears away from this. What is an issue is the uncertainty and there's so much uncertainty in the world, we don't need more, because of course with uncertainty you get companies baulking at investment decisions, like buying jets."

But Wheeldon says he does not expect Brexit to have a particular impact on the activity at this year's show.

"Brexit may be the first thing on people's minds here in the UK at the moment, but it's the last thing on the minds of those here who are thinking about placing orders," he says.

"They will place orders whether Brexit occurs or not, of course it's going to occur, it's not going to change anything, investment is long-term. Yes, there may be changes ten years from now, but it's not going to affect anything that's already here. So, I think it's the last thing on anybody's lips in terms of fearing that anything's going to happen. Though I accept there is a degree of uncertainty caused by it."

The Farnborough International Airshow takes place every two years and runs from 11 to 17 July 2016 - weather permitting.