London - 10 December 2018

1. Various of Tim Blake, Politics Professor at London's Queen Mary University,  looking at computer screen

2. SOUNDBITE (Engish) Tim Bale, Professor of Politics, Queen Mary University, London:

"It appears to be the case that Theresa May has been convinced by party managers that she cannot possibly win this vote and she's very likely to lose it by a very wide margin. If she were to lose it really badly, that could possibly threaten her premiership, so I think discretion is the better part of valour as far as she's concerned."

3. Various of Tim Blake looking at a computer screen

4. SOUNDBITE (Engish) Tim Bale, Professor of Politics, Queen Mary University, London:

"I think what Theresa May is hoping to do still is to wring some extra concessions out of Brussels and hope that they might be enough to persuade some waverers on her own side to vote for a slightly tweaked withdrawal agreement. Whether she can do that, I think, is a moot point."

5. Various of political books on shelf

6. SOUNDBITE (Engish) Tim Bale, Professor of Politics, Queen Mary University, London:

"I would imagine that the plan, as far as Theresa May is concerned, is to keep calling her interlocutors in the European Commission, to keep calling heads of government in other countries, to maintain communication with (Irish premier) Leo Varadkar and see if there is anything that they can give her that she can bring back and suggest that she's achieved some kind of concession. I think the problem with that strategy however is that in the end Brexiteers are going to insist that it's written into the legal withdrawal agreement. So the normal diplomatic way of sorting this kind of crisis out, some ambiguous language here, a euphemism there, is not going to work in this case. People want something in black and white and that's why it's going to be so difficult to achieve."

7. Various of political books on shelf

8. SOUNDBITE (Engish) Tim Bale, Professor of Politics, Queen Mary University, London:

"I think the chances of a second vote have increased markedly over the last two or three weeks actually. It looks as if it's going to be very difficult to get an agreement that satisfies parliament. We don't have very much time and no deal at least is a theoretical possibility and yet, in parliament and in the country as a whole, it's not a prospect that many people exactly relish. So, given that, it looks, to me anyway, as if a second referendum might be the only exit at what appears at the moment anyway to be effectively a burning building."

9. Various of Queen Mary University exterior

10. SOUNDBITE (Engish) Tim Bale, Professor of Politics, Queen Mary University, London:

"I think Theresa May's position after today is going to be a lot more shaky than we had assumed. We can't be absolutely sure these 48 letters will go in but I think the kind of chaos that saying you're going to hold the vote, then suddenly deciding not to, suggests is at the very heart of government is going to make some conservative MPs that actually she just simply cannot do this, she isn't the person who can negotiate a changed agreement with the EU, she isn't the person who can get agreement across parliament and they will have to replace her with someone who is. Whether that person is actually out there however I think is another matter."

11. Wide of Queen Mary University exterior

An analyst suggested on Monday that the British prime minister's likely delaying of a parliamentary vote on Brexit was a bid to retain her job.

"It appears to be the case that Theresa May has been convinced by party managers that she cannot possibly win this vote and she's very likely to lose it by a very wide margin, said Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University in London

"If she were to lose it really badly that could possibly threaten her premiership,"  he added.

May looked set to postpone Parliament's vote on her European Union divorce deal on Monday to avoid a shattering defeat, throwing Brexit plans into chaos just weeks after Britain and the bloc finally reached an agreement.

The House of Commons Speaker's office said May would make a previously unscheduled statement to lawmakers about Brexit at about 3:30 pm (1530 GMT).

The announcement came as May held talks with her Cabinet about the next steps in the Brexit process.

The Press Association news agency and other British media outlets said May had decided to postpone the vote scheduled for Tuesday.

May's office insisted on Monday morning that the vote would definitely be held.

All signs have pointed to a big defeat for the prime minister in Tuesday's vote - a result that could sink May's deal, her leadership, or both.

An updated House of Commons business statement said there would be a statement on "business of the House" after May's address, indicating a sudden change to the parliamentary schedule.

Bale suggested that May might be hoping to "wring some extra concessions out of Brussels and hope that they might be enough to persuade some waverers on her own side to vote for a slightly tweaked withdrawal agreement."

He suggested that the likelihood of a second referendum on Brexit had "increased markedly over the last two or three weeks actually" as "it's going to be very difficult to get an agreement that satisfies parliament."

"I think Theresa May's position after today is going to be a lot more shaky than we had assumed," Bale added.

Meanwhile on Monday the pound sank amid the political chaos, hitting an 18-month low against the US dollar.

May's Conservative government does not have a majority in the House of Commons, and opposition parties - as well as dozens of Conservative lawmakers - say they will not back the divorce deal that May and EU leaders agreed upon last month.

Britain is scheduled to leave the bloc on March 29.