London - 24 November 2020

1. Worker in Brompton Bicycle factory turning pedal bar on upturned bike

2. Worker tightening bike part

3. Worker twisting handle bars

4. Brompton Bicycle chief executive Will Butler-Adams walking along production line

5. Worker screwing part into wheel

6. SOUNDBITE (English) Will Butler-Adams, Brompton Bicycle chief executive:

"We put in place plans for the worst case scenario, and then we forgot about it, really, and got back to running our business and didn't spend three years getting distracted worrying about what might happen with Brexit. And that was all great. But of course, then COVID came along, and we'd built up this fantastic stock, for the worst case Brexit scenario, but then, when we went into the corona crisis, we stopped ordering because it was terrifying, and orders fell off a cliff and all our shops closed."

7. Pan across factory floor

8. SOUNDBITE (English) Will Butler-Adams, Brompton Bicycle chief executive:

"When we came out of COVID, suddenly demand, which we hadn't anticipated - maybe we should have done - went totally bananas, so then we were like "turn it on again, turn it on again," so did the whole rest of the industry, so then we struggled to get the parts back in again, so we've had to eat in to our Brexit stock, which saved us in many respects, but it now means, having been prudent and got it all organized like three years ago, we're now sitting here with a month to go, and, we've got no Brexit stock and we're facing Brexit."

9. Pan down boxes of parts

10. Various of workers welding parts

11. SOUNDBITE (English) Will Butler-Adams, Brompton Bicycle chief executive:

"Anti-dumping actually means that the country where the product is coming from is subsidizing that industry, i.e. you don't have to pay for your rent, your materials, your electricity is costing you a lot less than the actual going rate. What that does is, it means that it's not fair. The state is subsidizing that industry to make it so competitive that it's uncompetitive, we can't compete."

12. Worker putting wheel together

13. Worker placing part on mud guard

14. Bike pushed across production floor, pan to wheel being folded away

15. Bikes on production line

16. Sign reading (English) "Assembly Line 1," listing number of bikes built and packed, sign changing to "100%"

17. European Centre for International Political Economy trade expert David Henig walking towards road

18. Cyclists on road

19. SOUNDBITE (English) David Henig, trade expert at the European Centre for International Political Economy:

"It's probably the biggest change, one day change, in trading relations that any country since 1945 will have experienced. This is a huge change. This is going from a permissive regime where more or less we can trade anything with the EU that we like, to a permission based one where we have to check that everything that we want to trade, whether that's goods or services, whether we're allowed to do it."

20. Wide of London street with cyclists and traffics

As Britain prepares for a sharp economic break with the EU, an uncertain future awaits one bike manufacturer, which fears not having enough reserve supplies following turbulence caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

The team at Brompton Bicycle Ltd., which exports its hand-made folding bikes to 47 countries, thought they were prepared for Brexit, having stockpiled parts.

But then, the coronavirus pandemic struck.

Orders dried up as stores were closed during lockdown in the spring, only to surge once it was lifted.

"We struggled to get the parts back in again," said Brompton chief executive Will Butler-Adams.

"So we've had to eat into our Brexit stock, which has saved us in many respects. But ... we're now sitting here with a month to go and we've got no Brexit stock and we're facing Brexit."

Another worry for Butler-Adams is the government's decision to abolish an anti-dumping tariff imposed by the EU on Chinese bicycles after Brexit.

Brompton and other British manufacturers say removing the 48.5% tax will flood the market with cheap bikes subsidized by the Chinese state.

The U.K. split from the EU politically early this year, but remained part of the bloc's economic embrace during an 11-month transition as the two sides tried to negotiate a new free-trade deal to take effect Jan. 1.

But months of tense and often testy negotiations have not resolved differences on fishing rights, fair-competition rules and how to resolve future disputes.

Intense talks must produce either a breakthrough or a final breakdown in the coming days.

If there is no deal, New Year's Day will bring tariffs and other barriers to U.K.-EU trade, hurting economies on both sides of the English Channel.

The burden will fall most heavily in Britain, which does almost half its trade with the EU.

Things will be smoother with a deal, which would remove quotas and tariffs on goods, though business still face new obstacles and red tape.

Trade expert David Henig of the European Centre for International Political Economy said Jan. 1 marks "the biggest one-day change in trading relations that any country since 1945 will have experienced."  

"This is going from a permissive regime, where more or less we can trade anything with the EU that we like, to a permission-based one where we have to check for everything that we want to trade — whether that's goods or services — whether we're allowed to do it," he said.