STORYLINE

Britain and the European Union warned December 8th that talks on a post-Brexit free-trade deal are teetering on the brink of collapse, with just over three weeks until an economic rupture that will cause upheaval for businesses on both sides of the English Channel.

Officials downplayed the chances of a breakthrough when Prime Minister Boris Johnson heads to Brussels for face-to-face talks with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in the next few days.

With negotiators deadlocked on key issues after months of tense talks, German European Affairs Minister Michael Roth said the bloc’s confidence in Britain was hanging in the balance.

Johnson’s Downing Street office said the situation was “very tricky” and collapse of the talks was a distinct possibility.

Johnson and von der Leyen, head of the EU’s executive arm, spoke by phone December 7th for the second time in 48 hours.

They said afterwards that “significant differences” remained on three key issues - fishing rights, fair-competition rules and the governance of future disputes - and “the conditions for finalizing an agreement are not there.”

The two leaders said in the joint statement that they planned to discuss the remaining differences “in a physical meeting in Brussels in the coming days.”

Leaders of the EU's 27 nations are holding a two-day summit in Brussels starting Thursday.

***

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson arrived in Brussels on December 9th, ahead of crunch Brexit trade talks with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in the evening.

The leaders of Britain and the European Union will meet for a dinner that could pave the way to a post-Brexit trade deal - or tip the two sides toward a chaotic economic rupture at the end of the month.

They have just a few hours over a multi-course meal to unstick negotiations that are deadlocked on key aspects of the future relationship for the EU and Britain.

The U.K. left the EU on Jan. 31st after 47 years of membership, but remains within the bloc’s tariff-free single market and customs union until the end of the year.

Reaching a trade deal by then would ensure there are no tariffs or quotas on trade in goods on Jan. 1st, although there would still be new costs and red tape for businesses.

Failure to secure a trade deal would mean tariffs and other barriers that would hurt both sides, although most economists think the British economy would take a greater hit because the U.K. does almost half of its trade with the bloc.

***

As Brexit talks enter their decisive final days, there's still a big catch: the fishing industry.

It is holding up the trade deal between the European Union and recently departed Britain, putting at risk hundreds of thousands of jobs and tens of billions of euros in annual production losses.

French fishermen are anxious about a looming no-deal Brexit, following months of talks by negotiators seeking to cobble together a trade deal in the wake of their Brexit divorce.

While French and other European fishermen currently take much of their catch in UK waters, a no-deal Brexit could end or significantly limit that.

Twenty-eight year old fisherman Mathieu Pinto is concerned about the prospects of a no-deal Brexit.

Docking his boat, L'Ophelea, in the French port of Boulogne-Sur-Mer after a night of fishing sea-snails or whelk, Pinto said that the vast majority of his catch comes from British waters and there will be a "huge impact" on his business.

Pinto believes the consequences of the end of the current fishing policies would mean war amongst European boats fishing across the same coastal waters in France.

There is essentially not enough to go around, he said.

Pinto talks with other fishermen here in Boulogne and he says they are all just as scared as he is.

He says he is not yet ready to sell his boat but as someone who learned the trade handed down through his family, he is quickly losing his passion.

As well as France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Ireland and Denmark are among those directly implicated by the potential closing off of UK waters.

Brussels has proposed a 12-month period for continued reciprocal access to fishing waters but Britain has suggested this could be rejected.

For centuries, foreign fishermen shared the plentiful waters off Britain, and it has been no different since the UK joined the EU in 1973.

But as catches dwindled, sometimes to a fraction of their previous numbers because of ruthless overexploitation, the number of British fishermen has dwindled from 22,000 in 1975 to 12,000 in 2018.

Rightly or wrongly, EU trawlers venturing freely in UK waters came to be seen as a symbol of plunder and exploitation.

When Britain voted to leave, saving UK waters for UK fishermen became a rallying cry.

In an ideal scenario, British fishermen would have all the waters to themselves, able to expand what so long has been a diminishing industry but it's not that simple.

The EU came into the trade negotiations demanding that its boats continue being allowed to fish.

Even though Brexit left the bloc in a much weaker position, UK exports gave it leverage.

Some 80% of fish landed in the UK is exported, and three-quarters of that goes to the EU.

If the continent closes off its markets, fish would be left rotting on British quays.

The debate during the final days centers on how the issues of fishing rights for EU trawlers could be reconciled with low or no tariffs for UK exports through fish-processing hubs like Boulogne-sur-Mer.

***

Lorries travelling to the UK port of Dover were stuck in traffic jams that stretched back several kilometres on December 12th.

The queues built up even though it's three weeks before Britain leaves the European Union.

Logistics companies have reported a surge in demand for imports ahead of a potential no-deal Brexit.

The British government has warned that even with a deal, there could be queues as long as 100 kilometres if companies don't prepare the new paperwork.

***

Tensions were high in Dover on December 23rd as thousands of drivers remained stranded at the UK port.

Police were confronted by frustrated drivers in the road leading to the ferries, before backing away from the crowd.

People ran to return to their vehicles after officers signalled to move the traffic towards the port.

Many have been stuck in Dover for three days now after France banned travel from the UK on Sunday following news of a new variant of coronavirus spreading across south east England.

A deal was reached between the two countries to resume travel on December 23rd, as long as travellers showed a negative COVID test result from within the last 72 hours.

British Communities Secretary Robert Jenrick said around 4,000 trucks may be waiting in the county of Kent to cross the Channel and urged other truckers not to head there until the backlog is cleared.

It will take “a few days” to test all the drivers before they can travel to France, he said.

***

Scuffles broke out at the UK's Dover Port on December 23rd when police attempted to clear a route for health workers to arrive as efforts to clear a backlog of stranded drivers continued.

A police escort led in a group of cars carrying National Health Service test and trace workers and people were instructed to return to their vehicles as testing was about to commence.

However, some drivers who were stranded at the port were protesting by blocking vehicles from leaving the port.

A man was removed by police officers when he laid down in front of a truck.

Another protester attempted to stop a bus of port workers from entering.

Gridlock at the English port had kept thousands of truckers and travellers stranded on Wednesday despite a deal with France to lift a two-day blockade imposed because of a new variant of the coronavirus that had isolated Britain and raised fears of food shortages.

Nations around the world began barring people from Britain over the weekend after Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that scientists said a new version of the virus whipping around London and England's southeast may be more contagious.

***

Britain's Brexit negotiator David Frost left the UK Mission in Brussels to go to the EU Commission on December 24th, as the two sides appeared to be on the cusp of striking a trade deal.

Negotiators from the European Union and Britain worked through the night and right into Christmas Eve to put the finishing touches on a trade deal that should avert a chaotic economic break between the two sides on New Year's Day.

After resolving the remaining fair-competition and almost all fisheries issues on December 23rd, negotiators combed through hundreds of pages of legal text that should become the blueprint for a post-Brexit relationship.

As during much of the nine-month negotiations, the issue of EU fleets in British waters proved the most intractable and divisive, with negotiators still haggling over quotas for some individual species as dawn came.

Still, sources on both sides said the long and difficult negotiations were on the cusp of being wrapped up as negotiators, holed up at EU headquarters in Brussels with a stack of pizzas, worked to deliver the text to their leaders on Thursday.

***

While corks may have popped in London and Brussels over reaching the relative certainty of a post-Brexit trade deal after years of delays and negotiations, there was one rocky speck of British soil still left in limbo.

Gibraltar, known colloquially as The Rock, is a UK colony jutting off the southern tip of Spain's mainland.

But it was not included in the agreement announced on Christmas Eve between the European Union and the UK to reorganise commercial and trade relations between the now 27-member bloc and the first nation to exit the group

The deadline for Gibraltar remains January 1st, when a transitionary period regulating the short frontier between Gibraltar and Spain expires.

If no deal is reached, there are serious concerns that a hard border would cause disruption for the workers, tourists and major business connections across the two sides.

More than 15,000 people live in Spain and work in Gibraltar, making up about 50% of Gibraltar's labour force, and their cross-border journeys help make up the 30 million annual crossings.

Oscar Aguilera is a 40-year-old resident of La Linea De La Concepcion, the Spanish town that borders Gibraltar.

Every day, he crosses the frontier to work for a cleaning company based on The Rock.

Aguilera says he relies heavily on a fluid border for his daily work commute and worries about what will happen if there is no deal.

The Rock was ceded to the UK in 1713, and for three centuries, the strategic outcrop of high terrain has given its navy command of the narrow seaway linking the Mediterranean to the Atlantic Ocean.

Spain, however, has never dropped its claim to sovereignty over it and throughout the Brexit talks, it insisted it wants a say on the future of Gibraltar.

It succeeded in convincing the EU to separate the issue of Gibraltar from the wider Brexit negotiations, meaning that Madrid is handling all talks directly with its counterparts in Gibraltar and London.

The Spanish foreign ministry has warned that if an agreement is not reached before 1 January, the long lines of stranded truck drivers seen at the English Channel crossing could be repeated.

On Monday Spain's foreign minister Arancha Gonzalez Laya reiterated that her government wants to reach a deal, adding that "there's no plan B", and that "either there's a deal with the United Kingdom or there's a hard border."

Lorenzo Pérez-Periañez, who represents the La Linea Association of Small and Medium enterprises, has no doubt that a hard border would be devastating for the economies of both Gibraltar and Spain.

But he is keen to stress that it's not all about the financial impact, as border restrictions will impact families living on both sides.

Gibraltar's population of about 34,000 was overwhelmingly against leaving the EU.

In the UK's 2016 Brexit referendum, 96% of voters in Gibraltar supported remaining in the EU, because they felt the trade bloc would give them more leverage to deal with Madrid.

***

The UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson on December 30th signed the post-Brexit trade deal with the European Union.

Johnson told the media after the signing that "this is not the end, it is a new beginning".

Britain’s House of Commons voted to approve the deal, paving the way for an orderly break with the bloc that will finally complete the UK’s years-long Brexit journey.

With just a day to spare, lawmakers voted 521-73 December 30th to approve the agreement sealed between the UK government and the EU last week.

It will become British law once is passes through the unelected House of Lords on December 30th and gets formal royal assent from Queen Elizabeth II.

The UK left the EU almost a year ago, but remained within the bloc’s economic embrace during a transition period that ends at midnight Brussels time -- 11 p.m. in London - on December 31st.

02:01:31

00:00:00

GVs of EU buildings as Brexit stalemate remains

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ASSOCIATED PRESS

Brussels - 08 December 2020

1. Close of front of the European Commission logo

2. Wide of Christmas trees for sale in front of the European Commission

00:07:15

UK PM arrives at ambassador residence in Brussels

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ASSOCIATED PRESS

Brussels - 9 December 2020

++NIGHT SHOTS++

3. Various of U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson arriving at the residence of the U.K. ambassador to Belgium ahead of Brexit talks with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen

00:12:07

French fishermen anxious over no-deal Brexit

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ASSOCIATED PRESS

Boulogne-Sur-Mer - 10 December 2020

4. French fishing boat L'Ophelea arriving into Boulogne port after fishing overnight

5. Shellfish catch - whelk or sea snails- being unloaded from the boat

6. Fish and fishmongers

00:25:16

Lorries in long queues at Dover ahead of Brexit

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ASSOCIATED PRESS

Dover - 12 December 2020

7. Various of queues of lorries heading to Dover port

8. Dover port from the cliffs

00:37:16

Tensions high in Dover as some vehicles start move

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ASSOCIATED PRESS

Dover - 23 December 2020

9. Man confronts police officer in front of lorry

10. Row of police formed in front of lorry

00:45:16

Scuffles as police try to clear route for testing in Dover

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ASSOCIATED PRESS

Dover - 23 December 2020

11. Wide of man being removed from road by police officers

12. People demonstrating, one man stepping in front of bus

13. Police officers in front of road sign reading (English) "Return to vehicles, testing to commence"

00:57:16

Frost in Brussels on cusp of striking Brexit trade deal

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ASSOCIATED PRESS

Brussels - 24 December 2020

14. The UK's chief Brexit negotiator leaving the UK mission getting into car to go to the EU Commission, car leaving

01:05:08

Gibraltar’s post-Brexit border with Spain in limbo

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ASSOCIATED PRESS

Gibraltar - 22 December 2020

15. Workers crossing border into Gibraltar from Spain

16. Spanish worker Oscar Aguilera entering Gibraltar

Gibraltar - 19 December 2020

17. Various of people walking in town, at cafe

01:24:18

Johnson signs post Brexit trade deal

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UK POOL

London - 30 December 2020

18. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson signing trade deal, UPSOUND (English) Boris Johnson: " Here it is folks, this is it. And I know the question you will all be asking yourselves is, have I read it? The answer is yes. And it's an excellent deal for this country. But also, for our friends and partners. "

LEAD IN:

For decades Britain's discontent over its European Union (EU) membership has simmered on, but then came the June referendum.

Nationalism surfaced and Britain's voted to leave the EU.

Brexit as it became known sent shockwaves through money markets and governments around the world.

STORY-LINE:

In the weeks running up to referendum judgement day, the British were busy with a little soul searching.

Mulling over their shared history, the country's pride in their democracy and heritage.

It was a year when Queen Elizabeth celebrated being the longest reigning UK monarch and the country celebrated her ninetieth birthday.

The pomp and ceremony from her recent jubilee were still a source of pride and were reminiscent of the heydays when London style was considered to be world leading.

In the 1960's British fashion and British pop were riding high.

That sense of being at the vanguard of style has continued, according to Robert Johnston the Fashion Director of GQ Magazine: "You also think street scene, you think east London, you think hipsters, you think the most vibrant street fashion possibly in the world."

Author Iain Aitch explained how a variety of heritages were now mixed up, making Britishness a more complex idea to communicate: "Everyone might say a Sunday roast or fish and chips, that's a quintessentially British meal, but then suddenly everyone says it's chicken tikka masala."

But it wasn't this hipster, Brick Lane art and curry house side of Britain that won the vote.

The referendum on June 23rd was to signal the start of a long debate.

Britons for the first time had to absorb what being outside of the EU looked like.

Britain joined what was then called the European Economic Community in January 1973.

This was ratified by a referendum in 1975 with a resounding 67% majority.

By the seventies, Britain was beset by strikes and disgruntled union workers.

Traditional industries such as manufacturing and coal were in decline in the mid seventies.

Unemployment exceeded one million for the first time in March 1975. By the August that figure had increased to 1.25 million.

Some 83,000 immigrants were living in the UK by 1975, mostly from the Commonwealth.

According to Migration Watch UK for the year ending December 2015, net migration to the UK was 333,000.

And the lady had yet to turn. Margaret Thatcher MP (then leader of the opposition) campaigned to stay in the European Economic Community.

Later as prime minister between 1979 and 1990, Thatcher was known for her tough line with Brussels, especially during negotiations for the Maastrict Treaty in 1992.

The city of Maastrict is the home of the treaty which created the EU.

As summer arrived, businesses, leading universities and research establishments were beginning to assess the impact of Brexit.

For science and medicine, concerns were two fold.

Britain had attracted thousands of top researchers as well as billions of Euros in grants.

They went into research like this at Kings College London.

This project is a multidisciplinary look at the potential causes and effects of autism. It's a long term project which is linked to other studies across Europe.

Doctors and scientists aren't worried about losing cash in the short term, but falling behind in the knowledge race in the long term, especially as Britain has sought to place itself as a central base for the new industrial technologies.

The other fear is losing the brains which have been drawn to British research, people who now fear they will need to move to other institutions to keep up with the cash and the research.

Lead scientist at King's College Professor Declan Murphy warned: "Big questions need big populations to come up with the right answers, and we simply cannot deliver the amount of patients for the amount of science from one centre from one country."

The EU's Horizon 2020 budget is 80-billion Euro which funds medicine and science research across Europe.

Britain's split from the EU will leave a funding gap as well as a brain drain, according to Murphy. He argues it will be the children with autism like Van Velzen who will lose out.

As an island nation, boat building and sales have been important to the UK.

The industry fears rough waters may be ahead for Britain's luxury yacht industry, but right now it's riding on a wave caused by the plunge in the pound's value.

Phil Popham, the CEO of Sunseeker International was cautious: "We've benefited because of the weakness of the pound, but its all about business confidence."

Others like Russell Currie, the Managing Director of Fairline Yachts, says he already had cause to worry: "We've had an overnight decrease in the price of our boats in areas such as the European market."

British Marine's chief executive Howard Pridding tried to show more confidence in the course ahead: "Obviously, industry and business need stability and the time it will take to exit from the European Union will be problematic."

An estimated 1.2 million Britons live in other EU countries, mostly France, Portugal and Spain according to Britain's House of Commons library.

But that's a conservative figure because many expats don't bother registering with their embassies or the local authorities.

At Mijas on Spain's Costa del Sol, many Brits don't want to return to Blighty.

Used to the sun, sea and cafe society, some British residents are so concerned that their lives on the Costas are threatened, that after many years they're finally learning to speak Spanish.

According to Mijas' Mayor Juan Carlos Maldonado: "When the results of the Brexit (referendum) were known, a big uncertainty was created."

Local traders are also keen to keep the British on the Costa.

Many are retired and spend their pensions here.

Bar owner Sergio Morales says: "Most of our clients here, around 80% of them, are British."

A cloud of uncertainty still hangs over British expats in Spain and elsewhere in Europe.

And it's possible a string of similar nationality schools for expats may spring up.

Not everyone was bemoaning the onset of Brexit.

The art and antique market experienced a mini boom according to London dealers at this winter fair.

The weak pound against the dollar and Euro has seen American collectors in particular start to snap up bargains with savings of beween 25 and 30 per cent compared with six months ago.

Art dealers are reporting a similar trend.

They say investors see the arts market as a safe refuge in uncertain times.

As Christmas approaches the toy industry is bracing itself and Santa is wondering whether he'll have much to be jolly about.

It's the time of year when manufacturers and retailers count on making their biggest cash bonus of the year.

According to industry analyst Frederique Tutt: "Since the Brexit vote the toy market has been faring really well with an increase of three percent."

That's because toy retailers buy stock almost a year in advance and can keep prices stable, but the toy dealers here admit next year the stockings left out for Father Chrismas may have shrunk considerably.

There's nothing as Christmassy as a Christmas tree, but in Denmark the outlook for tree producers isn't quite so evergreen.

According to the Danish Christmas Tree Association, the small Scandinavian country grows around 11.5 million trees a year.

About 9.5 million of those are exported.

But these are challenging times and currency fluctuations are having an effect on trade.

Speaking about his members, Claus Jerram Christensen of the Danish Christmas Tree Association says: "They have experienced that the low exchange rate for the sterling pound makes it more difficult to achieve the same prices."

The true impact of Brexit on Britain and Europe as a whole is still to an extent unknown.

The UK government had announced it was to trigger Article 50 next March to start negotiations to leave EU.

But since then, Brexit has twice been contested in the High Court.

One ruling has already stated Britain's law makers should be allowed a vote in Parliament beforehand.

Breaking up, it seems, really is hard to do.

AP Television

London, UK - 22 February 2016

1. Wide of UK Houses of Parliament as London bus passes

2. Close of clock face at the top of Elizabeth Tower, which houses Big Ben

AP Television

London, UK - 16 June 2016

3. Wide of Big Ben as seen from Buckingham Palace

4. Wide of Buckingham Palace

POOL

London, UK - 3 June 2012

5. Queen Elizabeth II with Prince Philip (centre), Charles (left) and Camilla (right) on royal barge during Diamond Jubilee celebrations

6. Mid of Duke and Duchess of Cambridge and Prince Harry on royal barge

7. Pull out of royal barge sailing down River Thames during Diamond Jubilee celebrations

AP Television

London, UK - 11 June, 2016

8. Mid of Queen Elizabeth II in carriage during the Trooping of the Colour for her 90th birthday celebrations

9. Wide of Guardsmen in ceremonial marching during the celebrations

AP Television

London, UK - 1960s

++BLACK AND WHITE FOOTAGE / MUTE++

++4:3++

10. Close tilt down of man putting shirt in carrier bag

11. Wide of man by scooters

UNIVERSAL ARCHIVES

London, UK - 31 October 1963

++BLACK AND WHITE FOOTAGE / MUTE++

++4:3++

12. Various of Beatles getting off plane in London

AP Television

London, UK - 7 June 2016

++16:9++

13. SOUNDBITE (English) Robert Johnston, Fashion Director, GQ Magazine UK

"You also think street scene, you think east London, you think hipsters, you think the most vibrant street fashion possibly in the world."

AP Television

London, UK - 3 July 2012

14. Punk and goth street fashion in Camden

AP Television

London, UK - 16 June, 2016

15. Hipster in Brick Lane cafe

16. Pull focus of street sign reading: (English) "Brick Lane E1"

17. Various of curry houses on Brick Lane

AP Television

Margate, UK - 8 June 2016

18. Various of Margate beach and people relaxing in sunshine

19. SOUNDBITE (English) Iain Aitch, Author:

"Everyone might say a Sunday roast or fish and chips, that's a quintessentially British meal, but then suddenly everyone says it's chicken tikka masala."

20. Various of takeaway fish and chips being served

AP Television

London, United Kingdom, April 30, 1973 (MUTE)

++4:3++

21. Red buses on a London street

AP Television

London, United Kingdom, September 24, 1973 (MUTE)

++4:3++

22. Tilt down of Ford workers walking out of various plants

23. Wide of Ford cars on a train

24. Various men take part in industrial action at Ford plant

AP Television

United Kingdom, February 10, 1974 - no exact location available

++4:3++

25. Various of non functioning coal mines during national coal strike

AP Television

London, United Kingdom, June 3, 1975 (MUTE)

++4:3++

26. Mid of Margaret Thatcher wearing a flags-of-Europe sweater, flanked by women also wearing pro-Europe sweaters

AP Television

Maastricht, Netherlands - 7 June 2016

++16:9++

27. Clocktower of Maastricht town hall with EU, Limburg and Maastricht flags

28. Wide of streets in the town

AP Television

London, UK - 7 July 2016

29. Various of autistic teenager Rens Van Velzen completing other puzzles with black and yellow blocks against the clock

30. Close tilt down of the psychologist on the autism study at Kings College London timing Rens Van Velzen during test

31. Close of Van Velzen

32. SOUNDBITE (English) Professor Declan Murphy lead scientist, EU Aims study on autism, Kings College London:

"Big questions need big populations to come up with the right answers, and we simply cannot deliver the amount of patients for the amount of science from one centre or from one country."

33. Various of Van Velzen being tested in eye tracking unit at Kings College London

AP Television

Southampton, UK - 16 September 2016

34. Wide of Southampton Boat Show 2016, cruise ship in background

35. Tilt down to pontoon, boats and visitors

36. Close of 'Sunseeker' flag

37. Various of Sunseeker 95 Yacht exterior

38. SOUNDBITE (English) Phil Popham, CEO of Sunseeker International:

"We've benefited because of the weakness of the pound, but its all about business confidence."

39. Various of Fairline yacht

40. SOUNDBITE (English) Russell Currie, Managing Director of Fairline Yachts:

"We've had an overnight decrease in the price of our boats in areas such as the European market

41. Zoom out from cruise ship docked near boat show

42. SOUNDBITE (English) Howard Pridding, Chief Executive of British Marine:

"Industry and business need stability and the time it will take to exit from the European Union will be problematic"

AP Television

Mijas, Malaga - October 6, 2016

43. Wide of coastal area of Mijas

44. Pan of typical apartments in the area and people walking by the sea side

45. Various of British pensioners taking Spanish classes in the Parnell School

46. Various of Juan Mayor Carlos Maldonado in his office

47. SOUNDBITE (Spanish) Juan Carlos Maldonado, Mayor of Mijas:

"When the results of the Brexit (referendum) were known, a big uncertainty was created."

48. Various of family walking near beach

49. Pan from people walking up steps from the beach to the owner of Royal Beach cafe talking

50. SOUNDBITE (Spanish) Sergio Morales, co-owner of Royal Beach bar in Mijas:

"Most of our clients here, around 80% of them, are British."

AP Television

London, UK - 1 November 2016

51. Pull focus of bronze Japanese archer

52. Mid of men admiring antique chandelier

53. Art dealer Tanya Baxter showing painting to visitor

54. Close tilt down of painting 'Paper Bride in Waiting' by Zeng Chuanxing (price £120,000/ USD 147,000)

55. Wide of antique clock stand

AP Television

London, UK - 9 November 2016

56. Mid of Tiana Wilson with Santa who is holding a Hatchimal waiting for the toy to hatch

57. Wide of girl playing with toy on chair

58. Mid zoom in to boys playing with Bluetooth Furbys

59. Low mid view of caterpillar going past boys and Furbys

60. SOUNDBITE (English) Frederique Tutt, toy industry analyst, NPD:

"Since the Brexit vote the toy market has been faring really well with an increase of three percent."

AP Television

Lundby, Denmark - 22 November 2016

61. Mid tilt up of Christmas tree plantation

62. Wide of plantation through tops of trees

AP Television

Copenhagen, Denmark - 21 November 2016

63. SOUNDBITE (English) Claus Jerram Christensen, Managing Director of the Danish Christmas Tree Association:

"The low exchange rate for the sterling pound makes it more difficult to achieve the same prices."

64. Mid of large container truck filled with trees pulling out of yard stacked with trees

65. Pan across field of Christmas tree saplings for 2018 and beyond

WORLD BREXIT REVIEW

SOURCE: AP HORIZONS, LIFESTYLE, HEALTH AND TECHNOLOGY / POOL

RESTRICTIONS: HORIZONS CLIENTS AND AP LIFESTYLE, HEALTH AND TECHNOLOGY CLIENTS ONLY

LENGTH: 6.44

SHOTLIST:

AP Television

London, UK - 22 February 2016

1. Wide of UK Houses of Parliament as London bus passes

2. Close of clock face at the top of Elizabeth Tower, which houses Big Ben

AP Television

London, UK - 16 June 2016

3. Wide of Big Ben as seen from Buckingham Palace

4. Wide of Buckingham Palace

POOL

London, UK - 3 June 2012

5. Queen Elizabeth II with Prince Philip (centre), Charles (left) and Camilla (right) on royal barge during Diamond Jubilee celebrations

6. Mid of Duke and Duchess of Cambridge and Prince Harry on royal barge

7. Pull out of royal barge sailing down River Thames during Diamond Jubilee celebrations

AP Television

London, UK - 11 June, 2016

8. Mid of Queen Elizabeth II in carriage during the Trooping of the Colour for her 90th birthday celebrations

9. Wide of Guardsmen in ceremonial marching during the celebrations

AP Television

London, UK - 1960s

++BLACK AND WHITE FOOTAGE / MUTE++

++4:3++

10. Close tilt down of man putting shirt in carrier bag

11. Wide of man by scooters

UNIVERSAL ARCHIVES

London, UK - 31 October 1963

++BLACK AND WHITE FOOTAGE / MUTE++

++4:3++

12. Various of Beatles getting off plane in London

AP Television

London, UK - 7 June 2016

++16:9++

13. SOUNDBITE (English) Robert Johnston, Fashion Director, GQ Magazine UK

"You also think street scene, you think east London, you think hipsters, you think the most vibrant street fashion possibly in the world."

AP Television

London, UK - 3 July 2012

14. Punk and goth street fashion in Camden

AP Television

London, UK - 16 June, 2016

15. Hipster in Brick Lane cafe

16. Pull focus of street sign reading: (English) "Brick Lane E1"

17. Various of curry houses on Brick Lane

AP Television

Margate, UK - 8 June 2016

18. Various of Margate beach and people relaxing in sunshine

19. SOUNDBITE (English) Iain Aitch, Author:

"Everyone might say a Sunday roast or fish and chips, that's a quintessentially British meal, but then suddenly everyone says it's chicken tikka masala."

20. Various of takeaway fish and chips being served

AP Television

London, United Kingdom, April 30, 1973 (MUTE)

++4:3++

21. Red buses on a London street

AP Television

London, United Kingdom, September 24, 1973 (MUTE)

++4:3++

22. Tilt down of Ford workers walking out of various plants

23. Wide of Ford cars on a train

24. Various men take part in industrial action at Ford plant

AP Television

United Kingdom, February 10, 1974 - no exact location available

++4:3++

25. Various of non functioning coal mines during national coal strike

AP Television

London, United Kingdom, June 3, 1975 (MUTE)

++4:3++

26. Mid of Margaret Thatcher wearing a flags-of-Europe sweater, flanked by women also wearing pro-Europe sweaters

AP Television

Maastricht, Netherlands - 7 June 2016

++16:9++

27. Clocktower of Maastricht town hall with EU, Limburg and Maastricht flags

28. Wide of streets in the town

AP Television

London, UK - 7 July 2016

29. Various of autistic teenager Rens Van Velzen completing other puzzles with black and yellow blocks against the clock

30. Close tilt down of the psychologist on the autism study at Kings College London timing Rens Van Velzen during test

31. Close of Van Velzen

32. SOUNDBITE (English) Professor Declan Murphy lead scientist, EU Aims study on autism, Kings College London:

"Big questions need big populations to come up with the right answers, and we simply cannot deliver the amount of patients for the amount of science from one centre or from one country."

33. Various of Van Velzen being tested in eye tracking unit at Kings College London

AP Television

Southampton, UK - 16 September 2016

34. Wide of Southampton Boat Show 2016, cruise ship in background

35. Tilt down to pontoon, boats and visitors

36. Close of 'Sunseeker' flag

37. Various of Sunseeker 95 Yacht exterior

38. SOUNDBITE (English) Phil Popham, CEO of Sunseeker International:

"We've benefited because of the weakness of the pound, but its all about business confidence."

39. Various of Fairline yacht

40. SOUNDBITE (English) Russell Currie, Managing Director of Fairline Yachts:

"We've had an overnight decrease in the price of our boats in areas such as the European market

41. Zoom out from cruise ship docked near boat show

42. SOUNDBITE (English) Howard Pridding, Chief Executive of British Marine:

"Industry and business need stability and the time it will take to exit from the European Union will be problematic"

AP Television

Mijas, Malaga - October 6, 2016

43. Wide of coastal area of Mijas

44. Pan of typical apartments in the area and people walking by the sea side

45. Various of British pensioners taking Spanish classes in the Parnell School

46. Various of Juan Mayor Carlos Maldonado in his office

47. SOUNDBITE (Spanish) Juan Carlos Maldonado, Mayor of Mijas:

"When the results of the Brexit (referendum) were known, a big uncertainty was created."

48. Various of family walking near beach

49. Pan from people walking up steps from the beach to the owner of Royal Beach cafe talking

50. SOUNDBITE (Spanish) Sergio Morales, co-owner of Royal Beach bar in Mijas:

"Most of our clients here, around 80% of them, are British."

AP Television

London, UK - 1 November 2016

51. Pull focus of bronze Japanese archer

52. Mid of men admiring antique chandelier

53. Art dealer Tanya Baxter showing painting to visitor

54. Close tilt down of painting 'Paper Bride in Waiting' by Zeng Chuanxing (price £120,000/ USD 147,000)

55. Wide of antique clock stand

AP Television

London, UK - 9 November 2016

56. Mid of Tiana Wilson with Santa who is holding a Hatchimal waiting for the toy to hatch

57. Wide of girl playing with toy on chair

58. Mid zoom in to boys playing with Bluetooth Furbys

59. Low mid view of caterpillar going past boys and Furbys

60. SOUNDBITE (English) Frederique Tutt, toy industry analyst, NPD:

"Since the Brexit vote the toy market has been faring really well with an increase of three percent."

AP Television

Lundby, Denmark - 22 November 2016

61. Mid tilt up of Christmas tree plantation

62. Wide of plantation through tops of trees

AP Television

Copenhagen, Denmark - 21 November 2016

63. SOUNDBITE (English) Claus Jerram Christensen, Managing Director of the Danish Christmas Tree Association:

"The low exchange rate for the sterling pound makes it more difficult to achieve the same prices."

64. Mid of large container truck filled with trees pulling out of yard stacked with trees

65. Pan across field of Christmas tree saplings for 2018 and beyond

LEADIN:

For decades Britain's discontent over its European Union (EU) membership has simmered on, but then came the June referendum.

Nationalism surfaced and Britain's voted to leave the EU.

Brexit as it became known sent shockwaves through money markets and governments around the world.

STORYLINE:

In the weeks running up to referendum judgement day, the British were busy with a little soul searching.

Mulling over their shared history, the country's pride in their democracy and heritage.

It was a year when Queen Elizabeth celebrated being the longest reigning UK monarch and the country celebrated her ninetieth birthday.

The pomp and ceremony from her recent jubilee were still a source of pride and were reminiscent of the heydays when London style was considered to be world leading.

In the 1960's British fashion and British pop were riding high.

That sense of being at the vanguard of style has continued, according to Robert Johnston the Fashion Director of GQ Magazine: "You also think street scene, you think east London, you think hipsters, you think the most vibrant street fashion possibly in the world."

Author Iain Aitch explained how a variety of heritages were now mixed up, making Britishness a more complex idea to communicate: "Everyone might say a Sunday roast or fish and chips, that's a quintessentially British meal, but then suddenly everyone says it's chicken tikka masala."

But it wasn't this hipster, Brick Lane art and curry house side of Britain that won the vote.

The referendum on June 23rd was to signal the start of a long debate.

Britons for the first time had to absorb what being outside of the EU looked like.

Britain joined what was then called the European Economic Community in January 1973.

This was ratified by a referendum in 1975 with a resounding 67% majority.

By the seventies, Britain was beset by strikes and disgruntled union workers.

Traditional industries such as manufacturing and coal were in decline in the mid seventies.

Unemployment exceeded one million for the first time in March 1975. By the August that figure had increased to 1.25 million.

Some 83,000 immigrants were living in the UK by 1975, mostly from the Commonwealth.

According to Migration Watch UK for the year ending December 2015, net migration to the UK was 333,000.

And the lady had yet to turn. Margaret Thatcher MP (then leader of the opposition) campaigned to stay in the European Economic Community.

Later as prime minister between 1979 and 1990, Thatcher was known for her tough line with Brussels, especially during negotiations for the Maastrict Treaty in 1992.

The city of Maastrict is the home of the treaty which created the EU.

As summer arrived, businesses, leading universities and research establishments were beginning to assess the impact of Brexit.

For science and medicine, concerns were two fold.

Britain had attracted thousands of top researchers as well as billions of Euros in grants.

They went into research like this at Kings College London.

This project is a multidisciplinary look at the potential causes and effects of autism. It's a long term project which is linked to other studies across Europe.

Doctors and scientists aren't worried about losing cash in the short term, but falling behind in the knowledge race in the long term, especially as Britain has sought to place itself as a central base for the new industrial technologies.

The other fear is losing the brains which have been drawn to British research, people who now fear they will need to move to other institutions to keep up with the cash and the research.

Lead scientist at King's College Professor Declan Murphy warned: "Big questions need big populations to come up with the right answers, and we simply cannot deliver the amount of patients for the amount of science from one centre from one country."

The EU's Horizon 2020 budget is 80-billion Euro which funds medicine and science research across Europe.

Britain's split from the EU will leave a funding gap as well as a brain drain, according to Murphy. He argues it will be the children with autism like Van Velzen who will lose out.

As an island nation, boat building and sales have been important to the UK.

The industry fears rough waters may be ahead for Britain's luxury yacht industry, but right now it's riding on a wave caused by the plunge in the pound's value.

Phil Popham, the CEO of Sunseeker International was cautious: "We've benefited because of the weakness of the pound, but its all about business confidence."

Others like Russell Currie, the Managing Director of Fairline Yachts, says he already had cause to worry: "We've had an overnight decrease in the price of our boats in areas such as the European market."

British Marine's chief executive Howard Pridding tried to show more confidence in the course ahead: "Obviously, industry and business need stability and the time it will take to exit from the European Union will be problematic."

An estimated 1.2 million Britons live in other EU countries, mostly France, Portugal and Spain according to Britain's House of Commons library.

But that's a conservative figure because many expats don't bother registering with their embassies or the local authorities.

At Mijas on Spain's Costa del Sol, many Brits don't want to return to Blighty.

Used to the sun, sea and cafe society, some British residents are so concerned that their lives on the Costas are threatened, that after many years they're finally learning to speak Spanish.

According to Mijas' Mayor Juan Carlos Maldonado: "When the results of the Brexit (referendum) were known, a big uncertainty was created."

Local traders are also keen to keep the British on the Costa.

Many are retired and spend their pensions here.

Bar owner Sergio Morales says: "Most of our clients here, around 80% of them, are British."

A cloud of uncertainty still hangs over British expats in Spain and elsewhere in Europe.

And it's possible a string of similar nationality schools for expats may spring up.

Not everyone was bemoaning the onset of Brexit.

The art and antique market experienced a mini boom according to London dealers at this winter fair.

The weak pound against the dollar and Euro has seen American collectors in particular start to snap up bargains with savings of beween 25 and 30 per cent compared with six months ago.

Art dealers are reporting a similar trend.

They say investors see the arts market as a safe refuge in uncertain times.

As Christmas approaches the toy industry is bracing itself and Santa is wondering whether he'll have much to be jolly about.

It's the time of year when manufacturers and retailers count on making their biggest cash bonus of the year.

According to industry analyst Frederique Tutt: "Since the Brexit vote the toy market has been faring really well with an increase of three percent."

That's because toy retailers buy stock almost a year in advance and can keep prices stable, but the toy dealers here admit next year the stockings left out for Father Chrismas may have shrunk considerably.

There's nothing as Christmassy as a Christmas tree, but in Denmark the outlook for tree producers isn't quite so evergreen.

According to the Danish Christmas Tree Association, the small Scandinavian country grows around 11.5 million trees a year.

About 9.5 million of those are exported.

But these are challenging times and currency fluctuations are having an effect on trade.

Speaking about his members, Claus Jerram Christensen of the Danish Christmas Tree Association says: "They have experienced that the low exchange rate for the sterling pound makes it more difficult to achieve the same prices."

The true impact of Brexit on Britain and Europe as a whole is still to an extent unknown.

The UK government had announced it was to trigger Article 50 next March to start negotiations to leave EU.

But since then, Brexit has twice been contested in the High Court.

One ruling has already stated Britain's law makers should be allowed a vote in Parliament beforehand.

Breaking up, it seems, really is hard to do.

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LEAD IN:

Fine food and drink professionals in the UK say the industry is rapidly recovering from the impact of COVID-19, with some businesses doing even better after adapting during the pandemic.

However while demand is high, issues such as Brexit, labour shortages and backlogs at ports mean getting supplies in and out of the country remains a challenge.

STORY-LINE:

The Specialty and Fine Food Fair is back at London's Kensington Olympia, after it - along with most large events - was put on hold in 2020 due to COVID-19.

Attending are members of an industry hit particularly hard by the pandemic, especially those working in the hospitality sector.

One such company is Dylan's, a successful restaurant chain in North Wales.

Forced to close during repeated national lockdowns in the UK, its owners started making Dylan's meals which could be packaged and eaten by customers at home.

"It hit us really hard at first obviously, like all restaurant businesses, we had no business. So it made us think on our feet and rather than sitting at home doing nothing, we decided to develop into a retail range," explains one of the directors of Dylan's, Robin Hodgson.

"So what we decided to do was take our restaurant meals, package them up, make them with the same quality that we would do for our customers inside the restaurant, package them so that people could take them home and eat those same quality meals in their own houses. And it's been a tremendous success."

The UK is currently experiencing food and drink supply chain disruption with a range of issues such Brexit and backlogs related to COVID-19 contributing.

Some supermarket shelves are empty and online shopping is frequently plagued with shortages.

Aware of this, Dylan's decided to capitalise on a feature which has always made it popular - sourcing local materials.

"The big problem with Brexit that kind of snuck in at the same time was that we had problems with the supply chain," explains Hodgson.

"And the big ethos of Dylan's was to try and use as much locally sourced produce as we can. And that's what we've done with our retail range here. So what we do is we try and find the local products and make those into the sauces, into the ready meals that we have now."

Pivoting the business and thinking ahead of the supply chain issue has led to success for Dylan's.

"We've had the best summer that we've ever had," says Hodgson.

Another company whose product is in popular demand is New English Teas.

However their products are packed in India and Sri Lanka and international logistics to get the tea back to the UK are becoming more complex.

"Selling the products has become the easy part, actually getting the product to the customer has been the challenge," explains the company's Sales Director, Adrian Woodley.

Woodley says there's currently a lack of vessels and container space, with the impact of COVID-19 is still being felt at the ports:

"I know ports have been hit certainly globally around the world with the impact of Covid, and the availability of staff to work in the ports. But also some ports are getting very much overrun now because where ports have closed because of Covid outbreaks, products are then being skipped to other ports and that then gets backed up. And skipping ports, vessels that we're shipping to Hong Kong for instance, the products are being diverted because they're not prepared to wait to go into northern China. So again you've got delay after delay."

With many changes to customs and border rules following Brexit, exporting products from the UK to Europe is now more complex and prone to delays.

La Tua Pasta is a high-end restaurant supplier in the UK and also exports to Paris. They survived the worst of the pandemic by creating a website and selling fresh pasta directly to homes.

"We thought we had one mountain to climb which is Covid, then it turns out that there was a second mountain which was Brexit," explains Patricia Adrian-Hanson, Creative Director at La Tua Pasta.

Like many others at the fair, Adrian-Hanson says transport logistics are now the company's greatest challenge - particularly when it comes to exporting fresh pasta to Europe, which also requires certification from a vet (Official Veterinarian) because it contains animal products:

"We have a truck that goes to Paris every Saturday and we always dread that Saturday phone call, from our customs agent telling us that the truck is stuck because there is a box that wasn't checked on the 60 page document that the English vet had to fill out, or the French vet had a problem. Or the French vet was on holiday and the new vet that was standing in didn't agree with how things should be done, or had a different opinion etc."

Adrian-Hanson says we're still living in a world of uncertainty and that she is always very nervous about whether the truck will clear the border and make it to the customer in time to still be fresh.

Another company at the fair which says Brexit and labour shortages have created challenges is the Devon Distillery, particularly when it comes to importing the bottles for their products.

However since they also run a gin and a rum school and consider themselves a hospitality company they say a culture change - which has seen more people wishing to work from home since lockdown - is creating staffing shortages too:

"People come in, they design their own gin, their own rum, they put a label on their bottle, it's a very fun thing to do," says Kate Le Maux, Head of Operations at Devon Distillery.

"But it's definitely hospitality based and just trying to get the staff for that, I mean these days have changed so significantly and we're finding that although it's still a very fun job there are less and less people who are looking for that kind of work. So we are struggling and we are currently on a recruitment drive at the moment. So yeah it is difficult."

The Specialty and Fine Food Fair is the UK's leading showcase of artisanal food and drink and is at London's Kensington Olympia from 6th to 7th September 2021.

London, UK - 6 September 2021

1. Bartender doing tricks with bottle at 'Inspiration Bar' at Speciality and Fine Food Fair 2021 at Kensington Olympia

2. Bartender explaining to visitor how their bar works

3. Close of signage for Speciality and Fine Food Fair

4. Tilt down exhibition space at Kensington Olympia

5. Crowds climbing stairs in exhibition space

6. Jars and bottles on display at Dylan's stand

7. Tilt up jars and bottles

8. Robin Hodgson, one of the directors of Dylan's talking to visitor about how their company pivoted during the pandemic

9. SOUNDBITE (English) Robin Hodgson, Co-Director, Dylan's

"I mean it hit us really hard at first obviously, like all restaurant businesses, we had no business. So it made us think on our feet and rather than sitting at home doing nothing, we decided to develop into a retail range. So what we decided to do was take our restaurant meals, package them up, make them with the same quality that we would do for our customers inside the restaurant, package them so that people could take them home and eat those same quality meals in their own houses. And it's been a tremendous success."

10. Hodgson showing visitor their ready meals

11. Pan across ready meals in fridge

12. SOUNDBITE (English) Robin Hodgson, Co-Director, Dylan's

"The big problem with Brexit that kind of snuck in at the same time was that we had problems with the supply chain. And the big ethos of Dylan's was to try and use as much locally sourced produce as we can. And that's what we've done with our retail range here. So what we do is we try and find the local products and make those into the sauces, into the ready meals that we have now."

13. Pull focus from Dylan's chutney to crackers

14. SOUNDBITE (English) Robin Hodgson, Co-Director, Dylan's

"Covid's made us think in different angles and in different directions and it's pushed our business. We've had the best summer that we've ever had and we've got another side to the business that we never had before. So yeah it's been hard but it's pushed us and we're making it work."

15. Various of exhibitor stirring a curry

16. Wide of New English Teas stand

17. Close of tins of tea with pictures of the British royal family

18. Tilt up tins of New English Teas

19. SOUNDBITE (English) Adrian Woodley, Sales Director, New English Teas

"So our product is tea, as you can see, provided in very beautifully designed tins that are embossed and printed. Our products are then packed in Sri Lanka or India. Probably the biggest challenge of the last 12 months has been logistics. So selling the products has become the easy part, actually getting the product to the customer has been the challenge."

20. Close of tins of English Fine Tea

21. Wide of New English Teas products

22. SOUNDBITE (English) Adrian Woodley, Sales Director, New English Teas

"From a production point of view our factories are running at high capacity, so they are managing to produce the products. I know ports have been hit certainly globally around the world with the impact of Covid, and the availability of staff to work in the ports. But also some ports are getting very much overrun now because where ports have closed because of Covid outbreaks, products are then being skipped to other ports and that then gets backed up. And skipping ports, vessels that we're shipping to Hong Kong for instance, the products are being diverted because they're not prepared to wait to go into northern China. So again you've got delay after delay."

23. Woman trying chocolate at stand

24. Close of chocolate products

25. Various of chef at La Tua Pasta stand, serving pasta to visitors

26. SOUNDBITE (English) Patricia Adrian-Hanson, Creative Director, La Tua Pasta

"We thought we had one mountain to climb which is Covid, then it turns out that there was a second mountain which was Brexit, which was also terrible, and now we have the best mountain, which is demand, demand is back up and above where it was before Covid, which is wonderful except that whereas before we had too much of everything and we couldn't get it out to consumers fast enough, now we are scrambling to make sure that we have all of our suppliers in place, all of our logistics in place, in order to be able to service our client in the same timely manner with as much customer service as we had before."

27. Tilt across La Tua Pasta products on display

28. Tilt up from table of products to chef in background

29. SOUNDBITE (English) Patricia Adrian-Hanson, Creative Director, La Tua Pasta

"We have a truck that goes to Paris every Saturday and we always dread that Saturday phone call, from our customs agent telling us that the truck is stuck because there is a box that wasn't checked on the 60 page document that the English vet had to fill out, or the French vet had a problem. Or the French vet was on holiday and the new vet that was standing in didn't agree with how things should be done, or had a different opinion etc. So we are still living in the world of uncertainty, and because we have a fresh food product we are always very, very nervous about whether or not it will actually clear the border and make it to our customer who wants it of course on time and fresh."

30. Green VW van at drinks stand

31. Close of bottles of Hattiers Rum

32. Kate Le Maux, Head of Operations at Devon Distillery in front of stand

33. SOUNDBITE (English) Kate Le Maux, Head of Operations, Devon Distillery

"So Brexit, you know, importing things… so our bottles, and we get through quite a lot of bottles as a distillery, that's one of the things that's really been difficult for us. So it's a combination of things, so Brexit changes or rules, drivers, Covid tests, just trying to get things in has been… yeah! So our lead times have gone from a couple of weeks to months and that has had a huge effect on how the business operates."

34. Tilt up from bottles to distillery equipment on VW van

35. SOUNDBITE (English) Kate Le Maux, Head of Operations, Devon Distillery

"We have a gin school and a rum school and that is very much hospitality, customer facing. People come in, they design their own gin, their own rum, they put a label on their bottle, it's a very fun thing to do. But it's definitely hospitality based and just trying to get the staff for that, I mean these days have changed so significantly and we're finding that although it's still a very fun job there are less and less people who are looking for that kind of work. So we are struggling and we are currently on a recruitment drive at the moment. So yeah it is difficult."

36. Back of VW van reading (English) "Still on the Move"

In late October, Matthew Jones was enjoying a rare "bit of normality" at his London barber shop in a year that has been short on that.

He was cutting hair and laughing with colleagues — when the news that the business would have to close for the second time landed.

Jones, 43, endured 15 weeks without any income after the three Sharpes barber shops he co-owns were forced to shut in the spring as the government imposed restrictions to slow the spread of the coronavirus.

The shops, including a tiny one in east London's Hackney neighborhood, had been open for four months when Prime Minister Boris Johnson ordered a new lockdown.

"This second lockdown has been tough because you are just building up your business again trying to get back to a normal lifestyle and then all of a sudden it is all taken away and you know we still have high rents to pay here," Jones said.

The United Kingdom saw a sharp resurgence of COVID-19 infections this autumn, and the government imposed a second round of restrictions.

The suffering caused by the virus has been especially acute in the UK, where more than 57,000 people have died in Europe's deadliest outbreak and the economy has plunged.

While small businesses all over the world are struggling as the virus forces many of them to close, many in the UK are also facing the economic uncertainty caused by Britain's exit from the European Union.

Many British businesses managed to survive the spring lockdown with generous aid from the government, including grants like the £10,000 ($13,300) grant Jones received and a program that pays a portion of wages to workers whose employers are struggling.

The measures have helped keep the unemployment rate relatively low at 4.8% — though it has been rising and is forecast to hit 7.5% next spring.

The latest round of restrictions could pack a bigger punch in the crucial weeks ahead of Christmas.

Even before the second lockdown was announced, a survey conducted by Britain's Office for National Statistics showed that one in seven UK companies reported having "little or no confidence" they would survive the next three months.

Jones estimates that the pandemic wiped out 60% of his income this year.

With his shops closed, the single dad, who has a 10-year-old daughter, is doing odd jobs on building sites — and praying that business will return enough to ease the pain once restrictions lift on December 2.

The five other barbers who work in his shops are self-employed, and trying to scrape by as well.

Hackney, where one of Jones' shops is based has seen steady gentrification in the past two decades.

Located in London's historically gritty East End, the borough is filled with trendy bars and expensive apartments.

Broadway Market itself is lined with some 60 small shops, cafes and restaurants, and before COVID-19 hit, the street would throng with locals and tourists coming for the hugely popular weekend market.

These days, some shops are doing better than others, but everyone is scrambling to adapt.

Jane Howe, who has run Broadway Bookshop since 2005, said the weekends would often get so busy that her shop would take in thousands of pounds in sales per day on the back of £7.99 books.  

For a shop that relies heavily on foot traffic, the cycles of coronavirus restrictions have been hard.

In June, Howe launched a website for the first time, but she says it does not replicate shopping in person where you might buy more than you intend.

Even once her doors reopened, the tiny space meant she couldn't welcome back her usual crowds.

Sales from the website don't come close to making up for the in-person sales she's lost — especially during the crucial Christmas period.

"It's very difficult to be open because we are only allowed five people in at a time," Howe said.

With the shop pulling in just over half what it used to, Howe has stopped paying herself and when one of her two employees left, she was not able to replace her.

Like Jones, she's managed to keep paying the rent thanks to a government grant.

She has also taken out a £50,000 state loan.  

Others haven't fared as well.

A much-loved bakery next to Sharpes that was part of a 66-year-old family-run chain closed for good, Jones said.

The bakery's closure stands in contrast to a trend seen on much of the street where butchers, fishmongers, greengrocers and delis have done relatively well thanks to a surge in interest from fairly affluent locals who are now working from home and shopping locally.

Popular coffee shop Climpsons struggled to adapt at first — the cafe was shut, the wholesale business almost completely wiped out, and 34 of the company's 42 workers went on the government furlough scheme in the first weeks of the pandemic, co-owner Danny Davies said.

But now on weekdays, Climpsons often serves more take-away coffees than before the pandemic.

That makes up for losses on the wholesale side, which supplied restaurants and offices.  

"It's not great for business. We're worried about some of our customers, they're struggling. I think we ourselves have managed to weather the storm thanks to some of the resources (government grants) available," Davies said.

Down the street, Grigorios Vaitsas says business at his deli, Isle of Olive, has not been too bad, even though he has closed his small indoor cafe and Christmas shopping events have been canceled.

But Vaitsas and his partner, Paulina, who import their products from Greece, have been losing sleep over another threat: Brexit.

The couple are worried about the tariffs and bureaucracy if Britain leaves the economic embrace of the EU at the end of the year with no deal in place.

That combined with the pandemic makes a "perfect storm," Vaitsas said.  

"If the tariffs and the logistics and all of that, you know, get the prices so high that our items are now considered luxury goods, then it really changes completely our business model and what we were planning to do," Vaitas said.

London - 17 November 2020

1. Wide of people on Broadway Market

2. Road sign for Broadway Market

3. People walking on Broadway Market

4. Exterior of Sharpes Barbers with owner Matthew Jones putting up Christmas lights in the window

5. Close of 'Sharpes' sign

6. Various of Jones cleaning chair inside barber shop

7. SOUNDBITE (English) Matthew Jones, co-owner of three barber shops including Sharpes:

"This second lockdown has been tough because you are just building up your business again trying to get back to a normal lifestyle and then all of a sudden it is all taken away and you know we still have high rents to pay here. So yeah it's been really tough."

8. Jane Howe, owner of Broadway Bookshop, walking into shop

9. Cutaway of books in window

10. Howe changing book display in the window

11. SOUNDBITE (English) Jane Howe, owner of The Broadway Bookshop:

"People don't always come in knowing what they want. They see things on tables and they buy them, they just pick them up, like you don't always stick to your shopping list you usually buy more than you intend and that happens more in person than it would online."

12. Cutaway of books in window

13. SOUNDBITE (English) Jane Howe, owner of The Broadway Bookshop:

"It's very difficult to be open with only allowed five people in at a time and queues on the pavement and people taking a long time to buy their stuff instead of thinking about other people and hurrying up… you know."

14. Exterior of Climpson and Sons coffee shop with people queuing outside

15. Close of Climpson and Sons coffee shop and queue

16. Close of food in window

17. SOUNDBITE (English) Danny Davies, Co-owner of Climpson and Sons coffee shop and wholesale coffee business:

"I mean it's not great for business. We're worried about some of our customers, they're struggling. I think we ourselves have managed to weather the storm thanks to some of the resources (government grants) available."

18. Food in window

19. Employee serving person at entrance

20. SOUNDBITE (English) Danny Davies, Co-owner of Climpson and Sons coffee shop and wholesale coffee business.

"At one point in time it was really hard to see how it was going to go back to normal again but then the summer just gone we've seen pretty good sales figures. I think next year it will be similar with a bit more optimism with the vaccine."

21. Shop front of Isle of Olive deli, with Christmas decorations around it

22. Various of Paulina Filippou, co-owner of Isle of Olive dusting pastries with icing sugar

23. Pastries being put on shelf

24. Grigorios Vaitsas, co-owner of Isle of Olive, at till

25. Products for sale

26. SOUNDBITE: (English) Grigorios Vaitsas, co-owner of Isle of Olive deli:

"We hear and we see near us a lot of business shutting down, we know about rising unemployment so the coming of Brexit would just, or a no-deal Brexit rather, would just be like the perfect storm in terms of retail."

27. Various of Filippou dishing olives into pot

28. SOUNDBITE: (English) Grigorios Vaitsas and Paulina Filippou, co-owners of Isle of Olive deli:

Vaitsas: "We wanted to, to, have items that they're not just a one-off purchase they become part of..."

Filippou: "Not luxury products, people have good food every day."

Vaitsas: "So, if the tariffs and the logistics and all of that, you know, get the prices so high that our items are now considered luxury goods, then it really changes completely our business model and what we were planning to do."

30. Bottles of olive oil on shelf

31. Wide of products on shelves