SHOTLIST:

London

1. Wide shot Dr John Chipman, Director of International Institute of Strategic Studies, holding report

2. Close up of Chipman posing with report

3. People reading report

4. SOUNDBITE: (English) Dr John Chipman, Director, International Institute of Strategic Studies:

"Our net assessment of the current situation is that Iraq does not possess facilities to produce fissile material in sufficient amounts for nuclear weapons. It would require several years and extensive foreign assistance to build such fissile material production facilities. It could, however, assemble nuclear weapons within months if fissile material from foreign sources were obtained."

5. Cutaway press conference

6. SOUNDBITE: (English) Dr John Chipman, Director, International Institute of Strategic Studies:

"Iraq can certainly produce new stocks of bulk BW (biological weapons) agent, including botulinum toxin and anthrax with its existing facilities, equipment and materials. BW agent could be delivered by short-range munitions including artillery shells and rockets. Delivery by ballistic missile is more problematic given that much of the agent would be destroyed on impact, and the immediate area of dispersal would be small. Civilian casualties however could still be in the hundreds or thousands."

7. Cutaway journalists

8. SOUNDBITE: (English) Dr John Chipman, Director, International Institute of Strategic Studies:

"Unless Iraq has advanced beyond the impact fusing and warhead design of its 1990 era special warheads, its ability to disseminate effectively CW (chemical weapons) agent on ballistic missiles is questionable, since so much agent would be destroyed on impact."

9. Pan from stage to audience

10. SOUNDBITE: (English) Dr John Chipman, Director, International Institute of Strategic Studies:

"Our net assessment of the current situation is that Iraq has probably retained a small force of about a dozen 650km range al-Hussein missiles. These could strike Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran and Kuwait. These could be armed with CBW warheads."

11. Cutaway

12. SOUNDBITE: (English) Dr John Chipman, Director, International Institute of Strategic Studies:

"This strategic dossier does not attempt to make a case, either way, as to whether Saddam Hussein's WMD (weapons of mass destruction) arsenal is a casus belli per se (reason to wage war in itself). Wait and the threat will grow; strike and the threat may be used. Clearly governments have a pressing duty to develop early a strategy to deal comprehensively with this unique international problem."

13. Wide shot press conference

Washington DC

14. Wide shot Terence Taylor, Executive Director, International Institute for Strategic Studies, at press conference

15. Mid shot Taylor at press conference

16. Cutaway journalists

17. SOUNDBITE: (English) Terence Taylor, Executive Director, International Institute for Strategic Studies:

"I don't think this job of eliminating Iraq's weapons of mass destruction can be done by air forces and cruise missiles. We don't know enough in detail about where these facilities are. Some of them may be underground, some of them we know are mobile, like mobile laboratories for biological weapons and so on, so I think we wouldn't know any more than we would in 1998."

18. "Key Extracts" of report copy tossed onto front page cover of report

19. SOUNDBITE: (English) Terence Taylor, Executive Director, International Institute for Strategic Studies:

"There should be a shot at inspectors returning. I think there should be a last ditch effort saying to Baghdad, completely unhindered, no strings attached, if you want to show the world that you've ended these programmes, because you haven't convinced them yet, let the inspectors come back with the original conditions under UN Security Council resolution 687, which the previous inspection regime, so-called UNSCOM operated, and that might help in convincing the world community. I don't have a great deal of optimism that they would cooperate fully enough, but it should be given a shot."

20. Wide shot press conference

STORYLINE:

Saddam Hussein doesn't have nuclear missiles at the moment but he could develop them within a matter of months if he gets the necessary material from abroad, a leading independent think-tank said on Monday.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) report said developing weapons of mass destruction is one of Iraq's top priorities, adding that Saddam Hussein devotes enormous resources to such weapons.

The report - presented in both London and Washington DC - was compiled by a range of experts and focused particular concern on Iraq's efforts to develop nuclear weapons.

It expressed concern that a nuclear weapon, if developed, could fall into the hands of terrorists.

The report said that although Baghdad appears several years away, at least, from making its own nuclear or fissile material for a bomb, it could get the material from a foreign source and construct a weapon quickly.

The study gave no evidence that Iraq has been able to obtain nuclear materials. There has been concern about nuclear material being sold on the black market in parts of the former Soviet Union.

The report also said Iraq retains significant biological and chemical weapons and, more importantly, the ability to quickly produce more stocks.

The findings, presented as an impartial and technical analysis, echoed similar warnings from various government and private analysts and did not appear to contain much new information.

The release of the study came as US President, George W Bush, intensified efforts on Monday to gain international support for action against Iraq. The US administration says Baghdad poses a threat to American and international interests.

SHOTLIST:

1. Wide shot of Dr John Chipman holding report

2. Close up of Chipman posing with report

3. People reading report

4. SOUNDBITE: (English) Dr John Chipman, Director, International Institute of Strategic Studies

"Our net assessment of the current situation is that Iraq does not possess facilities to produce fissile material in sufficient amounts for nuclear weapons. It would require several years and extensive foreign assistance to build such fissile material production facilities. It could, however, assemble nuclear weapons within months if fissile material from foreign sources were obtained."

5. Wide shot of news conference

6. SOUNDBITE: (English) Dr John Chipman, Director, International Institute of Strategic Studies

"Iraq can certainly produce new stocks of bulk BW (biological weapons) agent, including botulinum toxin and anthrax with its existing facilities, equipment and materials. BW agent could be delivered by short-range munitions including artillery shells and rockets. Delivery by ballistic missile is more problematic given that much of the agent would be destroyed on impact, and the immediate area of dispersal would be small. Civilian casualties however could still be in the hundreds or thousands."

7. Cutaway of cameras

8. SOUNDBITE: (English) Dr John Chipman, Director, International Institute of Strategic Studies

"Unless Iraq has advanced beyond the impact fusing and warhead design of its 1990 era special warheads, its ability to disseminate effectively CW (chemical weapons) agent on ballistic missiles is questionable, since so much agent would be destroyed on impact."

9. Pan from stage to audience

10. SOUNDBITE: (English) Dr John Chipman, Director, International Institute of Strategic Studies

"Our net assessment of the current situation is that Iraq has probably retained a small force of about a dozen 650km range al-Hussein missiles. These could strike Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran and Kuwait. These could be armed with CBW warheads."

11. Cutaway

12. SOUNDBITE: (English) Dr John Chipman, Director, International Institute of Strategic Studies

"This strategic dossier does not attempt to make a case, either way, as to whether Saddam Hussein's WMD (weapons of mass destruction) arsenal is a casus belli per se (reason to wage war in itself). Wait and the threat will grow; strike and the threat may be used. Clearly governments have a pressing duty to develop early a strategy to deal comprehensively with this unique international problem."

13. Wide shot of news conference

STORYLINE:

Saddam Hussein doesn't have nuclear missiles at the moment but he could develop them within a matter of months if he gets the necessary material from abroad, according to a leading independent think-tank.

The warning came in a dossier published on Monday by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London.

The dossier added that Iraq has significant stocks of chemical and biological weapons, which could be loaded onto missiles capable of striking countries as afar afield as Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran and Kuwait.